On this assessment, rates ought to stay unchanged for a very long while.

It's not so much a matter of if, but when rates will have to rise. There's a distinct possibility that if we see more evidence of strong growth, the Fed will move sooner rather than later.

If the euro does tumble again -- and we think it will -- we must expect the ECB to orchestrate another round of currency intervention.

With less credit available, less growth is possible. So we are looking at a bad situation here that we fear can only get worse.

The growing perception is that Japan is falling back into a dark hole of recession again.

We do not see any fundamentals strong enough to keep it up there --unless there is a lot of intervention with other governments joining in. We expect the move will fail.