Much of the decline in confidence over the past two months can be attributed to the recent hurricanes, (gas) pump shock and a weakening labor market.

Historically, shocks have had a short-term impact on consumer confidence, especially on consumers' expectations. Fuel prices remain high, though they have retreated in recent days, and when combined with a weaker job market outlook, will likely curb both confidence and spending for the short run.

While the economy has not turned around yet, the worst may well be over. The upturn in confidence is being driven by growing confidence about the business outlook and job prospects. Consumer expectations for the future are now higher than they have been in more than a year.

Much of the improvement in confidence can be attributed to the resiliency of the economy post-Katrina and the recent declines in fuel prices.

As rebuilding efforts take hold and job growth gains momentum, consumers' confidence should rebound and return to more positive levels by year-end or early 2006.

It's hard for other people to realize just how easily we Florentines live with that past in our hearts and minds because it surrounds us in a very real way. To most people, the Renaissance is a few paintings on a gallery wall; to us it is more than an environment - it's an entire culture, a way of life.