Just as a number of factors drove the polls down, several different factors are driving them up. The more specific and more measured discussion of Iraq is a factor, the continuing good news on the economy is a factor, and declining gas prices is a factor.

The Republican race is totally and completely wide open. It's hard to identify another year when there was no favorite for the Republican nomination.

If Iraq adopts and ratifies a constitution and elects a government, it will have a significant positive effect on public opinion and on people's willingness to sustain casualties and support the war. But if events on the ground devolve into less desirable conditions, popular support is likely to wane.

This issue has reached critical mass. People are demanding that something be done.

Public opinion on Iraq is overwhelmingly driven by events on the ground,

It's hard to spin this as anything other than another problem dropped on the pile of troubles our side faces now. Bad news tends to come in bunches, and we've had a bunch lately.