It's difficult to argue against a stronger dollar. The Fed has clearly telegraphed it will continue raising the rate through the year.

I don't think the market will push far before the Fed statement. If they remove the sentence implying some further measured tightening then the dollar is at risk.

The U.S. labor market continues to tighten and the implication is the Fed will need to raise rates. Anything above 250,000 jobs today and the dollar will continue to push higher.

The U.K. economy will probably perform under trend again next year. The pound will fall early next year.

At present there is a probability of just under 70 percent of the Fed raising interest rates to 5.0 percent by May.

If these expectations are not at least confirmed by the meeting minutes, market participants might feel inclined to square their dollar longs.