It's a sign that the cycle is starting to turn. The job offer ratio improved for the second month, and that's usually a fairly reliable measure of market conditions.

Price rises are gradually feeding down the production chain. This is starting to affect consumer prices and would make the exit from deflation more solid.

September is typically the worst month for hurricanes, so even though we are starting to turn around, if another one forms and hits there [the Gulf Coast] it's just going to add insult to injury.

Everything isn't starting out well, but you have to look at it like we can turn it around.

It is difficult to find any part of the economic puzzle that would lead you to be less confident about the full-year 2006 outlook than you were six months ago.

If you look not just at the headline rate but also at the underlying rates, you are seeing a gradual climb away from zero and that has to be seen positively.