It shows that underlying inflation is still tame and only slowly edging up. That means the Fed can take its time hiking rates. The only question is whether it keeps moving at every meeting or takes a break now and then.

This summer's hurricanes served as a trigger point to start slightly slower economic growth. Higher home heating costs, rising inflation and rising interest rate levels will cause some construction slowdowns.

If we get evidence of inflation pushing up beyond the levels we've seen already, then it's game on for an ECB rate hike in December. We would give it about a 35 percent chance at the moment but that could increase quickly should we get surprises in the next inflation reports.

Both tend to do well when inflation is up and bonds are underperforming.

These are not incredibly large numbers, ... Along with the lower tax payments, refunds could add a half-percentage-point of growth to GDP in the first half of the year -- not a dramatic effect, but a bit of a plus.

The Fed won't admit to reacting to one number.