It is now appropriate to talk of a major energy crisis after Hurricane Katrina pushed U.S. energy markets beyond the edge. The impact of Katrina has been to produce a significant discontinuity.

The United States is facing a major gasoline crisis and is starting from a nearly empty tank.

Recent hurricane damage in the U.S. has impacted natural gas more than any other energy market.

Under the microscope it is clear that an important watershed is approaching. The short-term downtrend is about to come into conflict with the medium-term uptrend. Typically we would side with the longer-term move but the length of the downtrend from the high is a major cautionary note.

Don't miss the boat, again. Supply and demand fundamentals remain constructive for the price up-trends to persist.

The markets seem to be pricing in close to zero probability of something going wrong.