It all looks pretty disappointing for the Reserve Bank.

It's not hard to understand why business confidence surveys report significant pessimism.

This concern suggests it will take a lot of strength to get the Fed to tighten beyond 5 per cent.

It will be a while yet before we are printing better numbers.

But we don't think this language quarrels with the consensus view of financial markets - and our view - that an easing cycle will most likely begin in September.

They've made very good profits over the last four or five years. They've had a good run, so they're well-placed to take a hit.