In the second half of 2006, the big Cyprus dispute will happen.

A lot remains to be done when it comes to Turkish policies towards minorities.

But it's not clear yet whether Turkey sees this role as a supplement or alternative to EU membership.

But such an invitation and such a stand leads to irritations with the EU.

Turkey's behavior during the conflict shows that Turkey no longer is a typical Islamic country. But that's exactly what makes it less credible as a mediator.

On both sides, doubts are growing about a successful integration of Turkey into the EU. The reform drive that we've gotten used to between 2002 and 2005 has been paralyzed.