In the oil market there is a lot of emotion and a little bit of, I would call it, hysteria even. Prices go up, and then when the damage is assessed, even if it is relatively large, a little bit of sanity starts to prevail.

It is going to be an interesting week for crude oil. Demand is increasing as more refinery capacity from the Gulf Coast becomes available.

The hurricane may end up being a big nothing. If it misses oil facilities or the damage isn't too bad prices will fall further. The only way for OPEC to get out of this mess is to overproduce and broadcast they will pump whatever the market requires, which is what they did.

Measures taken by the Federal Government in conjunction with the IEA should have a downward pressure on crude prices. Current supply and demand fundamentals are only somewhat bullish for gasoline and outright bearish for crude oil and distillates.

Right now the goal of the Saudis, Kuwaitis and the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council is to see prices fall. They are very sensitive to the position of the U.S. and the rest of the industrial world. The moderate states want to see prices between $50 and $55 a barrel.

The only way for OPEC to get out of this mess is to overproduce and broadcast they will pump whatever the market requires.