In Canada, CPI inflation will be everywhere in energy, and nowhere in anything else, mirroring what we saw in the U.S. figures for September,

Today's statement ups the odds that the Bank of Canada will be back again with a 25 bp (basis point) 'Christmas present' in December.

I place more emphasis on jobs numbers than on confidence surveys in estimating consumers' attitudes. And that has not looked promising.

What counts, of course, is what the trend would have been absent hurricanes Katrina and Rita,

Looking only at 'affected areas' could understate the storm impacts, due to linkages between ports and more distant facilities.... we know that jobless claims have fallen off sharply as we moved past the storm impacts, another hint of underlying labor market vitality.

We expect the combination of a U.S. growth moderation and the lagged impacts of a strong Canadian dollar on factory employment to do a lot of the work in engineering that cooling in Canadian hiring, leaving the Bank of Canada with only another 50 basis points in rate hikes.