If you look at the record, at how the U.S. has weathered shocks, we have a very, very resilient economy. Initial conditions matter.

The Federal Reserve has been going through a tightening cycle. Whenever the Fed tightens, whatever financial fragilities there are in the economy are going to get exacerbated.

At the same time, the yield curve is flat and actually has the potential to invert. An inverted yield curve has often been a precursor to a recession occurring within a year.

There is no honeymoon -- not in a financial system like ours, not in this country where people are free to take risks and reap the consequences.

You had to admire him. He had a very tough job to do.

All of the sudden, there was political support for the notion that inflation was not just a tax, but a virus that attacks an economy.