If oil stays where it is, then the economy will slow, and the market will take up some of the Fed tightening that is priced into it.

We think the economy is in recession, and it looks like October is going to be weaker than September.

The economy could get back to an above trend rate this quarter, and that is what will matter to monetary policy makers.

As long as the oil market remains buoyant, as it does for other commodities, then the Russian economy will prosper. The consumption boom is growing on the back of the wealth being produced by commodity growth.

I think it's probably them worried more just about a very weak economy than whether it's a soft landing or a recession. But the Fed, they don't really care. They just want to see the economy get back up.

The economy is doing fine and the labor market is on the mend.