Forecasting is simply not a strength of the species; we are much better with tools and narrative storytelling.

People forget that although we can pinpoint the price, we can only guess at future earnings. The past isn't much help: It simply tells whether a market was pricey or cheap.

Narrative drives most of economics. Everything seems to be part of a story, and how that story is told often leads to critical error.

Content is king. When you are asking people to read you several times a day, you better have some fine content.

Outcome is simply the final score: Who won the game; what numbers came up in a roll of the dice; how high did a stock go. Outcome is the result, regardless of the method used to achieve it. It is not controllable.

If you have read me for any length of time, you know I am less than enthralled with much of what passes for financial news.