Fed officials' comments point to the risk of faster inflation. We expect three or four more rate hikes this year.

There's more upside risk on the dollar as the rate differential still attracts buyers. The U.S. economy is on a firm footing and the Fed may raise rates at least twice by March.

I think the dollar will try the upside if the data are good, but I don't think it will find momentum.

Japan's interest rates are still low. The rate- differential story still attracts Japanese investors to higher yielding assets.

It seems the U.S. housing markets remain overheated. This will give the Fed another reason to keep raising rates, supporting the dollar.

There are risks that inflation could heat up at bit and therefore the risk that the Fed might have to be a bit more vigilant than the market expects is the thing that makes me the most cautious.