Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.

Daniel Kahneman

Daniel Kahneman

Age Attribute Before Effects Except Extreme Fallacy Intuitive Issues Just Made Mostly Planning Predictions Prone Some Study Thinking

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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.

— Daniel Kahneman

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There is research on the effects of 9/11, and you know, compared to the enormity of it, it didn't have a huge effect on people's mood. They were going about their business, mostly.

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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.

— Daniel Kahneman

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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.

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I'm not clumsy, I'm just accident prone.

— Daniel Radcliffe

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