Everything is lining up for a rate cut. It seems the heat is coming off the economy, with consumer demand also slowing down.

It looks like manufacturing is still under pressure. We're getting to a stage of a two-speed economy where the manufacturing sector needs lower interest rates but the consumption side doesn't.

As CPIX (consumer price index less mortgage costs) continues to surprise on the downside and oil prices come down, pressure to cut rates will rise again.

The overall PMI shows we are still in rate cut territory. But the PMI has been below this (current) level and the ECB has not cut rates, so this survey on its own will add little to the chance of a rate cut.

They're in an absolute dead heat.

The economy is shifting from consumption to investment growth. The long commodity boom will also promote spending on construction and engineering that will grow the economy further.