Economic growth is rebounding after the temporary weakness in the third quarter. Rising export prices are providing a huge boost to the economy, which is fueling profits and prompting companies to hire.

The survey has provided a relatively good one-quarter lead on annual US GDP growth over the past 15 or so years - the correlation is 0.69.

Growth begins when we begin to accept our own weakness

Due to continued unexpected demand weakness, we now expect sequential unit growth in the mid-single digits, which is well below consensus expectations.

We continue to see signs of economic growth coming out of Europe. If we see some signs of weakness (in U.S. stock markets) or even that European equities outperform U.S. equities, you'll start to see money go out of the U.S. and go into Europe.

Following the accident, there's downside risks to exports in January, so the trade deficit may be wider than we expect.