Crude oil was the one thing not in short supply. What the U.S. lacks is oil products, especially gasoline, and it lacks the spare capacity to refine more crude.

The release of strategic reserves contains a very large component of unneeded crude oil and does little to directly impact on the actual supply gap of U.S. oil products.

The oil system, both upstream and downstream, is being run close to sustainable limits and the tensions created by the absence of slack are now the key driver of prices.

Keeping crude oil below $70 is all very well, but in political terms it is a useless achievement if you cannot also keep gasoline below $100. There is an energy crisis, and it is likely to get worse before it gets better.

Under the microscope it is clear that an important watershed is approaching. The short-term downtrend is about to come into conflict with the medium-term uptrend. Typically we would side with the longer-term move but the length of the downtrend from the high is a major cautionary note.

Don't miss the boat, again. Supply and demand fundamentals remain constructive for the price up-trends to persist.