Considering the very strong results for the fourth quarter, which were the strongest data seen in two years, (February's forecast) is not a particularly pessimistic number.

(The data) clearly suggest that industrial production has come out of its yearlong stagnation and is now in an uptrend, thanks to the recovery in exports, and domestic demand gaining some momentum.

A drop to 3.1 is reasonably big.

As long as energy prices are high, the trade surplus is going to shrink. The volume of imports is starting to pick up, so it's consistent with the domestic demand recovery.

I think the overall market peaked on Sept. 29 when major steel makers hit year-to-date highs.

The chance for a policy change next week has now risen to close to 100 percent.