Confidence can erode rapidly. As the global environment changes, caution and prudence should be the priorities for risk managers, investors and financial institutions.

The large managers have for some time now been unanimously confident with their business environment. Their smaller peers' confidence subsided in the fourth quarter of 2005 from 100 index points at the end of the third quarter. They are now back up to 98 index points.

The prudent man is always sincere, and feels horror at the very thought of exposing himself to the disgrace which attends upon the detection of falsehood. But though always sincere, he is not always frank and open; and though he never tells any thing but the truth, he does not always think himself bound, when not properly called upon, to tell the whole truth. As he is cautious in his actions, so he is reserved in his speech; and never rashly or unnecessarily obtrudes his opinion concerning either things or persons.

John is held in high regard by the Chinese government and if anyone can convince them to move more rapidly on adjusting upwards the exchange rate it is John.

Portfolio managers often find that their portfolios have a level of realized risk, or realized active risk, that is different from their target, or predicted, values. This systematic bias of factor models is well known among practitioners yet is, strangely enough, ignored by risk model providers.

Risk managers who saw their renewal prices drop said they felt lucky, because those who experienced the hurricane effect are now explaining to their management why renewal premiums just went through the roof. The real question is whether Katrina and Rita will have a lasting effect and strengthen the market for a time -- potentially in all lines of business, not just property -- or whether this is a short-term blip in what has proved to be a pretty resolute soft market.