Claims fell because the initial wave of job losses after Sept. 11th is fading.

This [report] suggests strongly that the distortions caused by the provisions of the March economic stimulus package are now fading and that the underlying -- downward -- trend in claims is starting to re-emerge,

This is a welcome surprise; the trend in claims in recent weeks has been strongly upwards.

We remain relatively optimistic about the housing market, but we do accept that activity fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11,

Initial claims were significantly better than the expected 300,000, and they were well within the range we would expect in a solid job market.

This may mark the start of an upturn in exports, but it's too soon to be sure.