Before Katrina, the system was already so tight that the worst-case scenario was for a disruption that took 250,000 barrels of capacity out of the picture. That would have been considered a major jolt,

The focus is on gasoline prices and all this gouging stuff. But the larger worry as far as I'm concerned is winter fuel.

The focus is on gasoline prices and all this gouging stuff. But the larger worry as far as I'm concerned is winter fuel,

Gasoline tends to obscure everything, especially since we aren't paying heating bills right now. But we were already looking at a winter fuel problem. We're about to take another hit that will cause a lot of problems.

We're already in uncharted territory now. We can't project what happens from another shot the size of Katrina or worse.

The market remains very tight. There is a thin cushion of spare capacity. And the market keeps wanting to grow, even with these prices. Demand keeps going up, and there's the problem.