As a forecasting rule of thumb, the yield curve has been pretty good — but it may not be a good rule of thumb today.

Right now bonds are reacting, and perhaps overreacting, to employment and CPI. What we will probably see in the next couple of months is that we aren't as close to an interest-rate hike as those two reports might suggest.

We got off to such a raging start this year, it was hard to believe it was sustainable. There was very little that warranted the huge run-up in prices coming out of the gate.

My expectation is the general trend of the next few quarters is for profit growth rates to come down, and it will start by having companies send out that message.

That's not what we expected to see in a year when earnings growth would slow slightly, and we were seeing some of that slowing already.

We were prepared for a more difficult ride than we wound up with. An S&P 500 of 3 percent is not terrific, but it's not a bad year.