Ahead of the storm clouds, the American job market was humming along nicely, a result that says little about where things will stand as the recent spike in energy prices begins to bite,

Look for the Fed to leave its poker-face statement unchanged.

Today's statement ups the odds that the Bank of Canada will be back again with a 25 bp (basis point) 'Christmas present' in December.

I place more emphasis on jobs numbers than on confidence surveys in estimating consumers' attitudes. And that has not looked promising.

What counts, of course, is what the trend would have been absent hurricanes Katrina and Rita,

Looking only at 'affected areas' could understate the storm impacts, due to linkages between ports and more distant facilities.... we know that jobless claims have fallen off sharply as we moved past the storm impacts, another hint of underlying labor market vitality.