A further deterioration of the situation in Nigeria, or escalation of nuclear brinkmanship with the Iranians, could push the (New York) price of crude further to 70 dollars.

The De-escalation of Nuclear Crises.

We view this as a serious escalation on the part of Iran on the nuclear issue.

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks.

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. The big problem is that going into the driving season, Nigerian refined crude is important for the US market, and if there are further disruptions, we are going to get a pop in crude prices.

Regrettably, this is a dangerous escalation that drags the whole region into a very critical, bad and grave situation,